The Market Traders

News and analysis that really matters.

Inflation

Underestimating Lots of Money

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 10:42pm -- editor

[[wysiwyg_imageupload:1918:]]By The Mogambo Guru

According to Harper's Index, the "estimated value of Chinese household income that goes unreported is $1.4 trillion."

To put it in perspective, the follow-up item is "Portion of China's GDP this represents: 1/3."

Of course, I don't know what to make of this, economics-wise or any other wise, but merely note with a soft whistle of appreciation that that is a LOT of money unaccounted for, and which does not show up in official statistics, which means that somebody is seriously underestimating something, which means that trouble is usually ahead.

Inflation... It's What's For Dinner

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 10:28pm -- editor

By Gary Tanashian

While NFTRH was highlighting risk leading into the initial phase of inflationary blow-ups - and surely Egypt, Libya and other strained global situations are symptomatic of chronic and disenfranchising inflation - it is important to understand that headline events do not move markets, beyond the very short term. Indeed, I saw enough last week to nudge the very short-term risk profile toward neutral; and in an age of inflation onDemand one should question a net bearish stance more often than not. Inflation ran the 2003-2007 bull market quite well until ultimately, the soufflé pancaked in 2008.

Inflation-Related Thoughts

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 4:19am -- editor

By Steve Saville
 
Don't fight the Fed?

"Don't fight the Fed" is an adage that's always worth remembering; however, this adage shouldn't be applied to all of the Fed's endeavours because the Fed is powerful in some areas and impotent in others. For example, the Fed can ALWAYS depreciate the US dollar -- that is, it can always cause dollar-denominated prices to rise -- if it chooses to do so, but it can't create real economic growth or sustainable employment (despite the fact that achieving "full employment" is part of the Fed's official mandate). Furthermore, although the Fed can always bring about a rise in prices by inflating the currency supply, it can't control which prices rise the most in response to its monetary inflation. In fact, the price-related effects of the Fed's inflation will often be the opposite of what the Fed intends.

A Little Understanding Goes a Long Way

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 9:40pm -- editor
Site Section: 

[[wysiwyg_imageupload:1888:]]By Peter Schiff

As the world confronts one of the most critical periods of economic upheaval that it has ever seen, it is clear that our most influential economic stewards have absolutely no idea what they are doing. But, like kids with a new chemistry set, they are nevertheless unwilling to let that stand in the way of their experimental fun. As they pour an ever-growing number of volatile ingredients into their test tubes, we can either hope that they magically stumble on the secret formula to cure the world's ills, or more pragmatically, we can try to prepare for the explosion that is likely to result.

China - The 800-Pound Inflation Gorilla!

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 10:13pm -- editor
Site Section: 

[[wysiwyg_imageupload:1881:]]By Sy Harding

When it comes to the growing global worries about inflation, it looks like it will be ‘As goes China so goes the world’.

China is the 2nd largest economy in the world, and rapidly gaining on the U.S. Among other statistics, it’s the world’s largest importer of copper, steel, cotton, and soybeans, and the world’s largest exporter of goods - to say nothing of being the world’s largest owner of U.S. debt.

Pages

Subscribe to RSS - Inflation