The Market Traders

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Deflation

Rounding Up the Culprits of Rising Prices

Andy's picture
Wed, 09/01/2010 - 5:48am -- Andy

By Mogambu Guru

From Bloomberg.com we get the bad news that "Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said inflation is likely to exceed the UK government's upper 3% limit in coming months as higher sales taxes drive gains in consumer prices," which "rose 3.1% in July from a year earlier after climbing 3.2% in June."

Apparently, he has to write a letter about it, probably something along the lines of "Dear British taxpayer, Our stupidity and incompetence have caused prices to rise more than 3% in a year, which means you are all doomed unless we government lowlife halfwits stop being incompetent, especially as regards monetary policy in general and creating far too much new money in particular, which we won't. Terribly sorry, old chap. Respectfully yours, Mervyn."

Economic Deflation is Underrated

Andy's picture
Mon, 08/30/2010 - 7:13am -- Andy

All of this news (and economic indicators) about deflation.  Deflation gets a bad rap, in our humble opinion.  It's merely a part of the business cycle.  A bubble inflates, everyone jumps in, and then it pops.  Assets are reallocated to the prudent, and taken away from the foolish.  This is capitalism, no?  It's been working pretty good in the U.S. (despite the interventions) for the past few hundred years or so.  So why this war on deflation?  We don't know.

Unfortunately, we don't think it will end like Japan, but we can hope.  We offer Marc Faber, a staff favorite to present our case.  Watch the video, he sums up the problem in two minutes.

[video:url=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=loa92ZG1KV8]

Austerity or Anaesthesia?

Alice's picture
Sun, 08/29/2010 - 5:13pm -- Alice

The optimism of early spring has given way to late summer angst. Fears of a double dip now dominate the headlines. The question on the tip of every major media pundit's pen has become: What can the Fed do?

Our answer: Nothing and why not? It worked before.

[video:url=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=czcUmnsprQI]

Stocks are Facing a Blood Bath of Epic Proportions Warns SocGen Strategist Albert Edwards

Andy's picture
Sat, 08/28/2010 - 10:54pm -- Andy

The UK Telegraph is reporting that investors should embrace themselves for a "blood bath" according to Albert Edwards a strategist with Societe General.

 

Mr Edwards said there was too much hope among investors, with excessive valuations in the US, but predicted it would come to an end in the coming months as economic data increasingly pointed to a double-dip recession.

"Equity investors are in for a rude shock. The global economy is sliding back into recession and they are still not even aware that these events will trigger another leg down in valuations, the third major bear market since the equity valuation bubble burst," he said. 
 

 

Fed Official Sees New Risk for a Boom and Bust Cycle

Andy's picture
Sat, 08/14/2010 - 7:30am -- Andy

Thomas M. Hoenig, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, said that the central bank’s monetary strategy could backfire.

In a hilarous article, The New York Times is reporting that Thomas Hoenig, the lone dissenter, states that current Fed policy risks the economy to another round of boom and bust.

“Monetary policy is a useful tool, but it cannot solve every problem faced by the United States,” Mr. Hoenig told local Chamber of Commerce members in a speech at the University of Nebraska, Lincoln. “In trying to use policy as a cure-all, we will repeat the cycle of severe recession and unemployment in a few short years by keeping rates too low for too long.”

Hugh Hendry, "I Live in the Real World"

Andy's picture
Sat, 08/14/2010 - 7:17am -- Andy

In an fantastic interview that shows the difference between academic types and speculators, Hugh Hendry (of Electica Capital Management) goes after Jeffrey Sachs (IMF goofball), states that he would "recommend you panic", that the banking sector is insolvent, and that Jeffrey should stop going on vacation and get a real job in the private sector.  Hilarious exchange.  Listen to Sach's condescending comments at around 3:30 and Hendry's body language, and then Hendry open's up at goes after Sachs at around 4:50. 

[video:url=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nuysYXlJ43I]

Pimco's co-CEO Mohamed El-Erian: The Fed Is Helpless (Um, Er, Hopeless?)

Andy's picture
Thu, 08/12/2010 - 2:31pm -- Andy

In a fantastic interview, Mohamed El-Erian (who is one of our favorite money managers) correctly states how the Fed is helpless (or should we say, hopeless) with the down turn in the economy. All the Fed can do is print money (that is monetary inflation-not specifically asset inflation) to solve the problem. http://www.cnbc.com/id/38638873 However, this is not a money printing problem (nor is printing money ever the solution). This is a structural problem within the entire system.

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