Macro trends and analysis
By P Radomski
Based on the April 8th, 2011 Premium Update. Visit our archives for more gold & silver analysis.
Before moving on to the timing-related part of this essay (in fact a continuation of our previous essay Breakouts in Gold and Silver Prices), let's take a few moments to focus on the big picture. Namely, we would like to draw your attention to some interesting facts about the main point of our interest - gold.
By Antal E. Fekete
On April 6 last I sent an open letter Congressmen Ron Paul of Texas accusing the Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, Dr. Ben Bernanke, that
[[wysiwyg_imageupload:2121:]]By Paul Kasriel
Fiscal austerity is all the rage these days in the developed economies. The proponents of fiscal austerity argue that it will lead to economic prosperity. The opponents of fiscal austerity argue that it will lead to poverty. Who is correct?
If the government decides to spend less, then, all else the same, it will need less funding. This, in turn, implies that the government will either cut back on its current taxation or cut back on its current borrowing. The former recipients of the cut-back government expenditures - government employees, contractors and/or transfer-payment recipients - will indeed experience a decline in their spendable funds. However, taxpayers and/or previous government bond purchasers will find themselves with extra spendable funds. What will they do with their extra spendable funds?
[[wysiwyg_imageupload:2113:]]By Dock Treece
As tax season winds to a close, the new focus of investors shifts to earnings season. After bottoming in 2009, corporate earnings have seen substantial improvement over the past two years - more so, even, than stock prices.
Now more and more researchers (some of whom missed the recovery for their clients, some who didn't) are forecasting even further increases in corporate earnings. In fact, the growing consensus among many large investment houses is that by August of this year, the 12-month earnings for companies listed in the S&P 500 will reach an all-time high, even when adjusted for inflation.
[[wysiwyg_imageupload:2112:]]By Axel Merk
Today, the European Central Bank (ECB) raised its main refinancing rate by 0.25% to 1.25%.
ECB President Trichet has long argued that its monetary policy is independent of the "extraordinary measures" put in place to support the financial system. However, it was only earlier this year that the market took Trichet's suggestions that he may raise rates seriously, even as the sovereign debt crisis remains unresolved.
[[wysiwyg_imageupload:2111:]]By David Galland
A Casey Report interview with Dr. Andrew Bogan
Dr.Andrew Bogan is a managing member of Bogan Associates, LLC in Boston, Massachusetts. He has spoken at many international investor conferences - his specialty being global equity investing - and has been interviewed on live television for CNBC's Strategy Session.
In an attempt to understand the relatively new but wildly popular Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), Dr. Bogan did extensive research into the structures used by ETF operators, with a special focus on the potential risks that might arise should they be faced with large and sudden liquidations. Given that there are about 2,000 ETFs in existence, with assets totaling over $1 trillion, we thought it appropriate to find out what Dr. Bogan has learned in his research.
By The Bourse Theorist
Below is a chart of the Japanese Trade Weighted Index against a basket of its largest trading partners. For many years, the Yen has been seen as the safe haven currency, one that investors could use to gain interest rate carry while investing in riskier and higher yielding currencies such as the Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar. The March 11 Quake-Tsunami-Radiation Disaster is challenging that notion, as it has forced the Japanese Government to once again entertain the idea of intervening in financial markets to ease the economic conditions on their citizens. However, now we are at the ultimate zero bound. The overnight interest rate stands at 0.1%. The 10 year government bond yields about 1.5%.
