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The Ongoing Municipal Bond Fiasco

Andy's picture
Fri, 09/24/2010 - 7:21am -- Andy

[[wysiwyg_imageupload:235:]]The WSJ is reporting that it is not so easy for municipalities to file bankruptcy, due to their need to have continued access to raise capital.  We ask what other alternative to state and municpal governments have?  When analyzing the ballance sheets of states and municipalities, a novice can see that current liabiblies drastically out number tax receipts.  Not only has current revenue collapsed, but when one considers future promises to government pensions, it resembles a house of cards. The only other alternative that we see is a federal bailout of epic proportions - and this very well could happen.  In fact, we fully expect it to happen.

From the article:

Are Progressive Taxes Fair? To Whom?

Alice's picture
Wed, 09/22/2010 - 11:26am -- Alice

[[wysiwyg_imageupload:203:]]One of our favorite economic historians, Amity Shlaes, has an insightful piece on Bloomberg concerning the current debate over top tax rates. Toward the end of her article, she references a 1994 study conducted by the American Association for Public Opinion Research, in which students were asked to give their opinion on flat and progressive rate tax structures.

 

Former City Manager of Bell California, Robert Rizzo, Behind Bars!

Andy's picture
Tue, 09/21/2010 - 11:13pm -- Andy

We reported almost a month ago that Robert Rizzo, the city manager of Bell California, was being paid millions to push paper in the city of Bell California.  It turns out that he was on the take and the city is prepared to announce criminal charges.  It's about FREAKING TIME.  He should be happy that he was not tarred and feathered.  The LA Times reports:

The Great Marc Faber on the Markets

Andy's picture
Mon, 09/13/2010 - 10:27pm -- Andy

[[wysiwyg_imageupload:157:]]The Great Marc Faber on the markets:

Current views are extreme. Marc sees the markets in a trading range. It could go down down Oct-Nov, then rally by end of year.

Wouldn't bet that S&P support at 1040 won't be broken, but he doesn't think we'll get below March 2009 lows.

Markets may not be happy with additional stimulus.

Geopolitical concerns may lead to correction.

Advises investment in physical gold.

(Click the "read more" link below to watch the video.)

Greece - the Bernie Madoff of Sovereign Debt

Andy's picture
Fri, 09/10/2010 - 7:52am -- Andy

[[wysiwyg_imageupload:124:]]

Bernie Maddof ran a Ponzi scheme and is now in jail.  If you are a government official and run a Ponzi scheme, you get reelected.  If you are really bad at it, you are working for Greece.  If you are really good at it, you are working for the U.S. government.

Are Blue Chips the New Banks?

Andy's picture
Wed, 09/08/2010 - 2:11pm -- Andy

by Justice Litle on Tue, 7 Sep 2010

Blue chip companies are borrowing from investors at insanely low interest rates. This is not a good sign.

It's back again, and the drumbeats are growing louder... the dreaded "D" word. Not doom or death or destruction, but deflation.

Investors by all rights should be scared silly by the prospect of deflation, based on what it did to Japan. During Japan's long march into the abyss from 1990 onward, the Nikkei lost more than 75% of its value... and still has not gained it back. Japanese equities – and investors who held on for the ride – were absolutely destroyed.

Bond Market Matters

Andy's picture
Wed, 09/08/2010 - 1:54pm -- Andy
Topics: 

[[wysiwyg_imageupload:145:]]The bond market drifted slightly lower last week.  The bar for economic expectations is set quite low, so even dismal data that beats expectations is now viewed as a triumph for the risk trade and a negative influence for the bond market.  The reality is that the bonds were seriously overbought and in need of a breather.  We are getting that much needed pause and consolidation.  Talk of a bubble or bonds falling off a cliff are just plain and outright silly under the current circumstances.

Searching for Yield: At Any Cost?

Andy's picture
Wed, 09/08/2010 - 1:47pm -- Andy
Topics: 

by Kieran Osborne CFA on Wed, 8 Sep 2010

In an environment with historically low interest rates, fixed income investors have been pouring money into longer-duration securities, substituting 3 and 6 month T-Bills with 10-year Treasures or bond funds. To an extent, this should not be so surprising: the Federal Reserve’s (the Fed) extraordinary monetary policies have resulted in extremely low yields at the short end of the yield curve. Investors seeking yield have been forced out the yield curve or into increasingly risky investments in an attempt to gain higher investment returns. However, this is not a strategy without risks, both at the individual investor level and for the economy as a whole. Are the Fed’s monetary policies, combined with the government’s decision to issue increasing levels of longer duration debt, having the unintended consequence of stoking the fire for further financial stress?

GLD Sham.. Wow!

Andy's picture
Wed, 09/08/2010 - 11:53am -- Andy

by Warren Bevan on Wed, 8 Sep 2010

Ahhh, the curves life throws at you sometimes still amaze me!

I’d worked all summer in anticipation of taking a two week vacation...now.  I was set to sail through the fabled Northwest Passage on a luxury icebreaker but six hours to the northern “port, if you can call it that, of Kugluktuk the ship ran aground on a large uncharted rock.

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